UFC Vegas 41 preview, ‘Costa vs Vettori’ predictions
Former UFC middleweight title contenders Paulo Costa and Marvin Vettori, coming off championship losses to reigning division kingpin Israel Adesanya, will battle for the right to stay alive in the 185 title chase. pounds, courtesy of the UFC Vegas 41 main event on Saturday. . night (October 23, 2021) inside the promotion’s APEX facilities in Las Vegas, Nevada. And like all UFC cards, good and bad, we’re here to help decide who wins and who loses tomorrow night in “Sin City.”
Before we dive into the main and co-main events, including the lightweight pitch between Grant Dawson and Ricky Glenn, head over to the preliminary breakdown of UFC Vegas 41 cards casually deconstructed by black market booster shot seller Patrick Stumberg here and here. Resident MMA hero Andrew Richardson did most of the heavy lifting for the rest of the UFC Vegas 41 main card right here. For the latest odds and betting lines for “Costa vs. Vettori ”, be sure to check out the sports handicap rankings before getting in on the action.
Let’s analyze it …
185 pounds: Paulo Costa vs. Marvin Vettori
Paulo “The Eraser” Costa
Record: 13-1 | Age: 30 | Betting line: +120
Win: 11 KO / TKO, 1 SUB, 1 DEC | Losses: 1 KO / TKO, 0 SUB, 0 DEC
Height: 6’1 “| Reach: 72 ”| Position: Orthodox
Significant strikes launched per minute: 7.03 | Astonishing precision: 57%
Strikes absorbed per minute: 6.70 | Shocking defense: fifty%
Elimination average: 0.00 (0% accuracy) | Knockdown defense: 80%
Current ranking: No. 2 | Last fight: Loss by technical knockout against Israel Adesanya
Marvin “The Italian Dream” Vettori
Record: 17-5-1 | Age: 28 | Betting line: -140
Win: 2 KO / TKO, 9 SUB, 6 DEC | Losses: 0 KO / TKO, 0 SUB, 5 DEC
Height: 6’0 “| Reach: 74 ”| Position: Left handed
Significant strikes launched per minute: 3.88 | Astonishing precision: 43%
Strikes absorbed per minute: 3.04 | Shocking defense: 63%
Elimination average: 2.24 (47% accurate) | Takedown defense: 78%
Current ranking: No. 5 | Last fight: Loss by unanimous decision to Israel Adesanya
Paulo Costa and Marvin Vettori are coming off championship losses to reigning 185-pound champion Israel Adesanya, and unfortunately for “The Eraser” and “The Italian Dream,” their five-round headliner won’t even place them in the top spot. second best in the division. . That distinction goes to former champion Robert Whittaker, who will look to claim his crown against “The Last Stylebender” at UFC 270 in January. Third best? You could argue in favor of Derek Brunson’s winner against Jared Cannonier, who also crashes at UFC 270, because Costa, despite his 13-1 record, had the easiest schedule of all the aforementioned fighters. In fact, “The Eraser” only has one win over a fighter currently employed by the UFC, and that’s hot and cold Uriah Hall, who has double-digit losses and never made the Top 5 in his eight years as a UFC middleweight. . . Not that anyone should be excited about Vettori’s accomplishments, but Jack Hermansson is a legit tough one and Vettori took Adesanya to the cards in two separate fights, which is way more than Brunson and Costa can say.
I don’t want to fire Costa simply because Adesanya made fun of him, but at the same time, I’m not going to give him a free pass or entertain his silly “I drank wine” excuse. He’s still a burly brute with great power and a punishing style, go for it. That works against finished welterweights like Johny Hendricks, or panicked forwards who tend to get caught on their heels like Hall. Vettori will not be afraid of getting hit and in many ways he is up to the task where fists start to fly. Any middleweight with the chin to go eight rounds against Adesanya in two fights is a formidable foe and part of me wonders what will happen to Costa once he realizes that “The Italian Dream” won’t shut down at the first sign of danger. I also think it’s worth noting that “The Eraser” hasn’t seen action in over a year and has never gone past a third round. By contrast, Vettori has already racked up three five-round fights in the past 10 months, so I would expect his conditioning to be superior.
Costa lands more than seven significant punches per minute, one of the highest percentages in the division, but he also eats the same amount in return. That kind of activity looks great in the eyes of the judges and let’s face it, Vettori attacks as Soda Popinski gallops, which is why he has never scored a knockout in the UFC (yet). Fortunately, his head is built like an Italian coconut, so he can lick and keep ticking. If this were a three-round battle, he might be more inclined to pick Costa, who will land early and often. But as the fight drags on and the burly Brazilian beats himself up, Vettori will take over and beat the exhausted “Eraser” until the referee takes pity and intervenes.
Prediction: Vettori def. Costa by technical knockout
155 pounds: Grant Dawson vs. Ricky Glenn
Grant “KGD” Dawson
Record: 17-1 | Age: 27 | Betting line: -350
Win: 4 KO / TKO, 11 SUB, 2 DEC | Losses: 1 KO / TKO, 0 SUB, 0 DEC
Height: 5’10 “| Reach: 72 ”| Position: Change
Significant strikes launched per minute: 3.40 | Astonishing precision: 48%
Strikes absorbed per minute: 2.10 | Shocking defense: 51%
Elimination average: 3.44 (34% accuracy) | Knockdown defense: 40%
Current ranking: Unclassified | Last fight: Victory by knockout over Leonardo Santos
Ricky “The Gladiator” Glenn
Record: 22-6-1 | Age: 32 | Betting line: +270
Win: 12 KO / TKO, 4 SUB, 6 DEC | Losses: 0 KO / TKO, 2 SUB, 4 DEC
Height: 6’0 “| Reach: 70 ”| Position: Left handed
Significant strikes launched per minute: 4.39 | Astonishing precision: 42%
Strikes absorbed per minute: 4.27 | Shocking defense: 53%
Elimination average: 0.66 (13% accuracy) | Knockdown defense: 66%
Current ranking: Unclassified | Last fight: Victory by knockout over Joaquim Silva
Grant Dawson was originally booked to fight No. 11 lightweight veteran Diego Ferreira; however, the Brazilian was rejected due to injury and the promotion chose to keep Dawson on the card, so Ricky Glenn was called up for the UFC Vegas 41 co-main event. Many experts consider “The Gladiator” to be one step down from Ferreira, but keep in mind that the Brazilian is coming off back-to-back losses, including a knockout to Gregor Gillespie, and turning 37 in just a few weeks, while 32-year-old Glenn surpassed Joaquim Silva to return. to the win column at UFC Vegas 29 last June. I suppose the biggest blow against the Iowan is his consistency, or lack of it, with a 4-3 record in seven trips to the Octagon. On the other hand, all three losses have been by decision and Glenn has consistently shown that he is a tough nut to crack. He’s also easy to take down, as Dennis Bermudez dragged him to the ground six times in his 2018 summer adventure. That’s a troubling statistic considering that Dawson, an accomplished high school fighter, has scored 14 takedowns in five bouts. under the UFC banner. Along with his brown belt in jiu-jitsu, “KGD” was able to accumulate 11 appearances in 17 professional victories, along with eight other appearances on the regional circuit.
There are many things I like about the future of Dawson, who is still 27 years old. It is complete and comes from a great camp. If you haven’t been paying attention to the headlines over the past year, former UFC welterweight James Krause is fast becoming one of the most respected and sought-after coaches in the game. At the same time, I don’t want to get carried away because Dawson has yet to prove what he can do against a Top 15 fighter and yes, part of that blame falls on Ferreira. Glenn may not have a name that is as recognizable as the Brazilian, but he is just as dangerous and perhaps even more so with such an uneven betting line because he has nothing to lose. All the pressure is on Dawson and that can break some fighters, but Dawson seems like the type of athlete who thrives in those situations. I’d expect a competitive round-trip round to start, but eventually Dawson will take over the fight. A late finish wouldn’t surprise me.
Prediction: Dawson def. Glenn by submission
Remember, the rest of the UFC Vegas 41 top card predictions are HERE.
MMAmania.com to offer round-by-round, step-by-shot LIVE coverage of the entire UFC Vegas 41 card RIGHT HERE, starting with the ESPN + preliminary card bouts at 1 p.m. ET, followed by the ESPN + the main card start time at 4pm ET.
For the latest and greatest news and highlights from UFC Vegas 41, be sure to visit our full event archives here. To view the updated and finalized “Costa vs. Vettori” card and ESPN + lineup, click here.